Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
