🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still